Academy Awards 2008 Picks

Has it really been a year already? Sweet sassy molassey! For those of you who have been reading this blog since its inception last January (you guys are awesome! all five of you), you’ll remember the lengthy post I wrote with my 2007 Oscar picks. Well, with the Awards coming up this Sunday, I figured it was time to give it another go. So here, for your reading pleasure, are my 2008 Academy Award picks for who should win, who will win, and who might surprise us all.

BEST DIRECTOR – (Tony Gilroy, The Coen Brothers, P.T. Anderson, Julian Schnabel, Jason Reitman)
Who Should Win: Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
So maybe I’m a bit biased here. Not only was this my favorite drama of the year, (as I mentioned in an earlier post) but I’m a sucker for emotional, visually arresting and innovative films. I’ve never seen a movie like this one before, and the lion’s share of the credit must go to Schnabel. I love movies that are cinematic, meaning that the story cannot possibly be told without the medium of film. This is a surprisingly rare trait for films today (not including special effects heavy action movie extravaganzas), and I love Schnabel for his contribution. The movie itself IS the story– there’s no way we get in Bauby’s mind or into his visual POV without Schnabel’s camera. The film is beautiful to look at, emotionally moving, and perfectly exeuted at every turn. Schnabel is my winner, hands down.

Who Will Win: The Coen Brothers – No Country For Old Men
The clear front-runners after taking home the Directors Guild Award last month. Their work on this film was flawless; each shot perfectly calculated, patient and well-composed. But is the movie really that good? It might be perfectly done, but for money, this film is the perfectly done chicken breast to Julian Schnabel’s filet mignon.

Who Could Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Thought about going with industry favorite Gilroy, but the buzz on Blood is too much to ignore. I’ve found that people are extremely divided about this film, and are wildly passionate about their opinions. 50% think it’s a stroke of genius, a brilliantly crafted masterpiece that is surely the pinnacle of Anderson’s career. The other 50% (myself included) think it’s an indulgent, and pointless film that features the year’s best acting (more on that later). It doesn’t seem likely, but if the passionate fans are loud enough, Anderson just might strike gold.
BEST ACTOR – (Daniel Day-Lewis, Johnny Depp, Viggo Mortensen, George Clooney, Tommy Lee Jones)
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
No contest here. Lewis will win easily, by what I’d guess will be an enormous majority. As with every role he plays, Day-Lewis completely inhabits the character to the point that the line between actor and role disappears. In his past few films, Day-Lewis hasn’t had a chance to really spread his wings, but I’d say that any time this bro gets a meaty, wide-ranging role like Blood‘s Daniel Plainview, he’s a veritable Oscar lock. Absolutely no contest.

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
The Academy might be stupid sometimes, but they aren’t too stupid to recognize DDL here. He’s won all the big critics awards and he will take home the statue on Sunday night, guaranteed.

Who Could Win: No one.
Seriously. DDL is so far in front of the race that it’s useless to even speculate another winner. If I had to pick one of these guys, it’d have to be Clooney. Viggo and Depp are wildly undeserving and I just don’t think enough voters will have seen Jones in In The Valley of Elah to merit him any real consideration. This one is over.
BEST ACTRESS – (Cate Blanchett, Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard, Laura Linney, Ellen Page )
Who Should Win: Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose
Cotillard’s transformation into French singer Edith Piaf is not only the best female performance of the year, but one of the best I’ve ever seen.  In fact, while she is terrific throughout the whole film, Cotillard’s portrayal of Piaf in her older years might be the best performance of a young woman playing an old woman in the history of cinema.  I can’t think of a better one- can you?  If Cotillard doesn’t win, it’s proof that the Academy voters simply do not award those who most deserve it in every case, for if they did, the beautiful Cotillard’s win would be as wrapped up as DDL’s in the Actor cat.

Who Will Win: Julie Christie – Away From Her
The Academy loves to recognize an actor’s entire body of work by forking over the Oscar for one particularly good performance towards the end of that actor’s career.  This is the scenario we will likely see tomorrow night when Christie wins the Oscar for her strong, but not Oscar-worthy performance in the little-seen film Away From Her.  Super duper lame, considering how frickin good Cotillard is.

Who Could Win: Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose
There’s no way Ellen Page wins; she’s lucky just to have been nominated and looks to have a very promising career ahead of her, if she chooses the right project.  Cate Blanchett is  equally lucky to have be nominated, as she was essentially  nominated for playing a role she’s already played and for which she was already nominated.  Plus, her nominated turn as Bob Dylan in I’m Not There is being highly touted and voters are much more likely to pick her there than here.  Laura Linney is a terrific actress, but no one saw The Savages and the performance is too low-key to garner any serious attention.  Which leaves Cotillard as the only real option to steal this award from Academy-fav Christie.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – (Saoirse Ronan, Ruby Dee, Cate Blanchett, Amy Ryan, Tilda Swinton )
Who Should Win: Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
My favorite performance of the year.  Amy Ryan was absolutely brilliant in this film– brilliant.  In the (underrated, in my opinion) film, Ryan’s daughter is kidnapped, which would usually cause viewers to sympathize with her, but Ryan’s portrayal of a white trash drug addict is so despicable, that we almost hate her most of all.  It’s rare that we as an audience are so wildly unsure how to feel about a character, but Ryan’s work evokes exactly this indecision.  Brilliant.

Who Will Win: Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
This is definitely the hardest race to call.  It could go to SAG winner Ruby Dee, as the Oscars and SAG awards have coincided in this category for the past five years running.  But I have a feeling that Dee’s win was only recognition of her entire career, and I don’t think this  kind gesture will translate onto the bigger stage of the Academy Awards.  It could also go to Blanchett, who is a big time Academy favorite.  But I’m going to stick with Ryan here, who is just too damn good not to win.  But even as I write this, I have a sinking feeling in my stomach that Blanchett will be the one taking home the statue tomorrow night.

Who Could Win: Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Saoirse Ryan was the best part of the mediocre Atonement, but she should count the nomination as her true prize.  Tilda Swinton was terrific in Michael Clayton, but her role was too small and her performance too soft-spoken to compete with the big, bold performances by Blanchett and Ryan.  If Ryan doesn’t win, and the Academy doesn’t pull a huge stinker and dump the award to Dee (who is the least deserving of all the actresses here), it’s gotta be Cate.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR- (Javier Bardem, Casey Affleck, Hal Holbrook, Tom Wilkinson, Phillip S. Hoffman )
Who Should Win: Everyone
Yes, it’s a cop out, but honestly, I’d be happy for any of these five terrific actors to take home the prize.  Holbrook was heartbreaking and scene-stealing in Into the Wild, Bardem was spooky as hell in No Country, Casey Affleck cemented himself as the better Affleck brother and a young actor to watch for the future with his breakthrough turn in The Assasination of Jesse James…, Phillip Seymour Hoffman was hilarious and the best thing about the otherwise overlooked Charlie Wilson’s War, and Tom Wilkinson was sensational as a bipolar lawyer in Michael Clayton.  But, if I have to pick one, I’ll go with  Hal Halbrook.  I don’t care that he’s been in the biz a long time and that a win here would recognize a long, terrific body of work– he was the most moving and affecting part of Into The Wild (a movie I loved, by the way, and was sad to see get so ignored by the Oscars), and his performance has really stayed with me.

Who Will Win: Javier Bardem – No Country For Old Men
He’s got all the buzz, all the critics awards, and his film is the most well-known and most-viewed of the five.  Barring a huge upset here, I think Bardem is a lock, despite the fact that I think he might be the least deserving of the bunch.
Who Could Win: Hal Holbrook – Into The Wild
As I mentioned, the Academy loves to recognize vets for their entire body of work, and that could be the case here.  Plus, the film wasn’t nominated for anything else important, so this would be a way for voters to recognize the film as a whole.  And most importantly, Holbrook deserves the win.
BEST PICTURE – (No Country For Old Men, There Will Be Blood, Atonement, Michael Clayton, Juno )
Who Should Win: No Country For Old Men
This category is a joke.  If I had it my way, none of these films would be nominated.  But No Country is winning all the critics awards and is definitely the best film of this sorry bunch.  Atonement is as average a film as I’ve ever seen, Juno is the most overrated movie since Crash, There Will Be Blood is a great performance bound within a mess of a movie, and Michael Clayton was a cold and emotionless as the corporate lawyers it portrays.

Who Will Win: No Country For Old Men
I’m going to go out on a limb here and call this one a lock.  I just can’t see anyone else beating it.

Who Could Win: There Will Be Blood
If anyone is going to steal it, it’s got to be There Will Be Blood, as the people who love this movie absolutely LOVE it.  But I just don’t see anyone taking this away from The Coen Brothers.

SOME OTHER QUICK PICKS:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Who Should Win: Persepolis
A terrific, moving, deeply affecting portrait of hellish life in revolutionary Iran.

Who Will Win: Ratatouille
Oscar loves Pixar, plain and simple.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who Should Win: The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
A true adaptation, taking Bauby’s autobiography and turning into a stunning cinematic experience.

Who Will Win: No Country For Old Men
I’m calling the sweep.